February 6, 2010
I’m closing up shop for a few months, but I wanted to first wish everyone a Happy Super Bowl Sunday and then elaborate on this entry before I disappeared.
“In the past it’s been easy to say that the Underdog Theorem far outperformed Wall Street. This year, we simply hung in there. Looking back on the crazy year that took place, I’m pleased with how things turned out.” That’s a quote from me. (Yes, me quoting me.) The part I’d like to elaborate on is where I said that I’m pleased with how [this season] turned out. (Yes, me clarifying me.)
The Underdog Theorem produced extremely impressive returns this year. The reason they don’t look as impressive compared to Wall Street is clear when you look a little farther back in time. Wall Street posted huge gains this year only because it had fallen so far the year before.
Wall Street vs. Underdog Theorem (Last Three Years)
Judge the Underdog Theorem against Wall Street’s majors over three, five, eight, or all seventeen seasons, and you’ll see which vehicle has been more impressive. Above are the yearly returns over the past three years for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), the S&P 500 (SP), the NASDAQ (NDQ), the Underdog Theorem Value (UTV) and the Underdog Theorem Growth (UTG). If you’d like to learn more, visit one of the fantastic vendors below.
Back to the Super Bowl this weekend. I’ve been asked by several people who I’m pulling for, and this year it’s an incredibly easy call. Not only did the Colts make our second half of the season a major headache, but they’re also the favorite. The Saints, on the other hand, were great to us this year – they remained undefeated while failing to cover, and are the underdog this weekend. Who dat? Who dat? Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints? Who dat? Who dat?
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January 18, 2010
I’m closing up shop for a few months, will blog you next season. Before I go, I wanted to write two more posts, each elaborating on points made in this entry. Below is post one of the two.
Many people were surprised by the then-undefeated Indianapolis Colts’ decision to bench starters with only 1.5 games remaining in the season. There will be a new layer added to the criticism of the Colts if they lose to the Jets this weekend, since many people believe the Colts would have beaten the Jets in Week 16, and that loss would have eliminated the Jets from the playoffs. This would certainly be a great story, but whether or not it happens, and whether or not you think benching the starters was the right move, I wanted to point out that, as a bettor, you could have seen it coming. From page 32 of The Underdog Theorem:
Injury
The heaviest member of the 1972 Dolphins team was defensive tackle Jim Dunaway, who was listed at 277 pounds. The 2006 Miami roster listed 21 players who weighed more than Dunaway, with 19 of those 21 heavier than 300 pounds. Imagine L.J. Shelton, an offensive tackle for the 2006 Dolphins, listed at 6′6”, 345 pounds, lining up against Jim Dunaway, 6′4”, 277 pounds. It’s a totally different game today than it was back in the 1970s. Keep reading →
January 3, 2010
Maintaining a blog is a pain in the ass. But this WordPress software finds ways to make it entertaining. Some examples: it’s easy to see how many hits you get each day, what terms people search for to get to your blog, and which of your posts people click on the most. In all three of these cases, I have to admit, I stumbled on to a pretty solid traffic generator by posting about CentSports. Keep reading →
December 29, 2009
A surprising (to people who haven’t read the Underdog Theorem) move yesterday in Indianapolis brought a crazy year of Underdog Theorem betting to a profitable end. I’ll cover what everyone cares about up front, then share some of the history made this season.
The Underdog Theorem Keep reading →
December 26, 2009
It’s been a wild ride in ‘09. Whenever the dust settles, the bankroll will reveal the UTG’s first “3000″ season. What we know already, unfortunately, is that this season has joined UT infamy for undefeated powerhouse spread streaks. The ‘98, ‘05, and ‘09 seasons have been the roughest. Let’s see what happens tomorrow, UTV has quite a bit on the line too. Will the real Mark Sanchise please stand up? (Unless the real Sanchise is the guy who hands over footballs to defenses like he’s Santa Claus, then he can remain seated.) Bets of luck to all, and to all a good night.
December 16, 2009
This is a rushed entry, there is so much more to say about the Indianapolis Colts than what will end up in this space. For anyone new to the UT this year, you might not be aware of how completely dominant of the regular season the Colts have been for a good long time. In 2007 the UT invoked a special anti-Colts clause in Week 4 (p. 201) that was created as a result of their phenomenal 2005 and 2006 seasons. And now they’re even better. This late in the year, when all other teams are showing signs of wear and tear, the Colts are streaking against the spread. They are a remarkable franchise. I resisted praising them for too long and I cannot deny them any more. The Colts are the kings of the NFL regular season, which might not mean much to fans, but it does to bettors. Were it not for the Colts, this season would be playing out similarly to ‘07, when the Pats wowed us all, remaining undefeated down the stretch as a result of tight wins that rewarded the UT. But Peyton, and especially, in my mind, Dallas Clark, are just too solid.
But they will fall. Meanwhile, UT newbies are seeing a great example of the upside of forgoing payout in favor of peace of mind. UTG-ers have to dig deep tomorrow, the equivalent of two seasons of bankroll risked on a single game, and so far only getting 3 points. If you’re working UTG this season, bets of luck to you. UTV-ers have lost a great deal of winnings because of the Colts, but probably have an easier time appreciating their skill and might even kind of enjoy watching the NFL’s most impressive franchise do it’s thing. Way to go Colts. Now GO JAGS!
