Looks Like I Picked the Wrong Week to Quit Sniffin Glue

Watching the first 10 minutes of the first two games, the last 10 minutes of the last game, then checking the bankroll after the games, made me feel like McCroskey.
If you’re a UT newbie who thinks he’s feeling some pain, well, you’re not imagining things, this has turned pretty painful.  I’ll share an article about [...]

Five Through Five

I am a derelict blogger.  Season 17 has presented much to write about and so far I have failed to write much at all.  For each of the past three weeks I’ve placed my bets and noticed the crazy ride the bankroll is on, but didn’t think much of it.  This morning I saw Berman [...]

Underdog Theorem Futures

In a post now just over a year old, I commented that NFL futures are usually pretty impressive in their accuracy.  I listed the teams, according to NFL futures, that were most likely to chase perfection.  Most teams on the list ended up having seasons not at all like what was predicted.   So let’s try [...]

NFL Loses Right to Moral Ground on Betting Issue

[An AP article By TIM DAHLBERG from May 23, 2009]
NFL loses right to moral ground on betting issue
By TIM DAHLBERG
Coming soon to a state lottery near you: NFL team logos you can save after blowing 20 bucks on yet another worthless batch of scratch-off tickets.
Coming soon to the Delaware state lottery: A legitimate [...]

Simply Amazing

2007, June, a book is published. It focuses on two scenarios: 1) the undefeated NFL season, 2) the winless NFL season.
Weeks later, the 2007 NFL season kicks off and a team nearly goes undefeated. It wins every game of the season before losing its final game. The very next year, the 2008 [...]

Mean Reversion – Giants, Titans

Unrelated to the Underdog Theorem, just an NFL point spread thought to share while we wait for Season 16 to resume – keep an eye on the Giants and Titans against the spread for the rest of the season.
In finance, some investors think that prices and returns revert to the mean. Basically, if a [...]

VW and FO

VegasWatch has an update on their perfect season calculations.  They also point out that FootballOutsiders is tracking these scenarios too.  VegasWatch now gives the Titans a 5.2 percent chance of finishing 16-0, and the Lions an 11.1 percent chance of finishing 0-16.  The post also notes that FootballOutsiders sees 4.8 and 9.2 percent chances respectively.

Vegas Watch’s Odds for Undefeated and Winless

VegasWatch.net is a great blog that I wish I discovered sooner.  Better late than never.  Aside from the many links in this article, a link to Vegas Watch will appear over in the Friends and Favorites sidebar.
Vegas Watch’s post from last Sunday, “What Are The Odds: Another Perfect Season“, is particularly pertinent to the Underdog [...]

Stick to Your Strategy

Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your perspective) for Underdog Theorem Value investors, it’s time to part ways with the Underdog Theorem Growth investors.  The UTV investors are giving back most of the season’s winnings so far for the relative peace of mind that the UTV strategy provides.
There is never any telling how a season will [...]

The Lombardi-Belichick Trophy?

Although we’re still waiting for the start of the Underdog Theorem season (the start is never before Week 3 and some years after Week 3, learn more), the NFL season has already provided us with many unexpected twists and turns. My last post was about the end of an era.  With the news that Tom [...]